Bridgewater warns of peak U.S. profit margins, lower stock prices GlobeInvestor
The major drivers of high U.S. corporate profit margins are unsustainable and “now under threat”, which will eventually result in much lower equity prices, Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, said on Wednesday in a report.
“Without that consistent expansion of margins, U.S. equities would be 40 per cent lower than they are today.”Over the last few decades, almost every major driver of profit margins has improved, Bridgewater said. “Some of the forces that supported margins over the last 20 years are unlikely to provide a continued boost,” Bridgewater said. “Incentives for offshore production have been reduced as global labor costs have moved closer to equilibrium, with domestic costs and rising trade conflict increasing the risk of offshoring, while the potential tax rate arbitrage from moving abroad is now much smaller.”
“We are in the midst of a populist backlash against rising inequality and increasingly seeing a move toward more protectionism,” it said in the report. “Recent surveys show increasing animosity toward globalization and the power of companies more broadly and a bit more welcoming attitudes toward government regulation of firms.”
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