On Monday oil prices dropped in a likely response to the calculated and drawn-out nature of the Israeli ground offensive, deflating the premium as markets look to the Fed
However, today oil dropped sharply back to $87 once it became clear that the war in the Middle East had not escalated to a full ground invasion – a chance markets have not been willing to take. In fact, oil andhad shown a tendency to rise into the weekend as traders positioned for the worst. Monday then represents a period of reflection and slight relief seeing that a massive operation was avoided or delayed.
Oil has also shown a lower sensitivity to news flow from the region after OPEC distanced itself from political responses after Iran called for an oil embargo on Israel. The focus appears to have become less about supply uncertainties and more about waning global demand for oil as major economies struggle under restrictive conditions. EU data this morning revealed another quarterly contraction in Germany, narrowly avoiding another technical recession after Q2 GDP came in flat.
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