From Breakingviews: Europe has both the financial capacity and the political interest to play the leading part in the rebirth of Ukraine, says pierrebri
Russia’s invasion of its neighbour in February last year interrupted a slow reform drive in Ukraine. The irony is that effort had started when Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea in 2014, thus ensuring that Ukraine would firmly aspire to belong to Europe.
Rebuilding Ukraine will require help, expertise and guidance – and a lot of time and money. Yet the costs are within what Ukraine’s allies and multilateral organisations can afford.The divergence between Poland and Ukraine since the end of communism in Europe has a lot to do with the former joining the European Union in 2004. The latter, on the other hand, took the corrupt path of an oligarch-financed economy, along the lines of the Russian model.
In the first four months of 2023, the European Union overtook the U.S. as top donor to Ukraine, according tonumbers, injecting some $6.5 billion into the government budget. Were the aid to continue at that rate, it would total $19.5 billion for the whole of 2023. That’s just 0.1% of the EU’s GDP – a small tax to pay to keep Putin at bay.
The number sounds impressive. Look closer, though, and it is largely affordable for Ukraine’s allies, even if Europe had to shoulder the whole burden. Even under extreme and unlikely assumptions that public money would fund half of the $410 billion needed through non-repayable grants, and that non-Europeans would suddenly stop all aid to Ukraine, the EU could fund the entire reconstruction by spending $20.5 billion a year for a decade - in line with its current 0.
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