At one point in Homer’s Odyssey, the hero has to steer his ship between twin dangers: Scylla, a multi-headed monster, and the whirlpool of Charybdis. Leaders of the Group of Seven rich countries meeting this month in Hiroshima may feel they are in a similar situation when it comes to China. They don’t want Beijing to invade Taiwan; but they also want to avoid war with the People’s Republic.
The best chance of steering between these twin evils is for the G7 to agree on a strong deterrence strategy. If leaders speak with one voice, Xi Jinping may be reluctant to invade Taiwan. If not, the Chinese president may think he can exploit their divisions, just as Russian President Vladimir Putin wrongly concluded the West was too weak to prevent him grabbing Ukraine.is a good forum for the world’s large rich democracies to determine grand strategy.
If China annexed Taiwan by force, other Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea would feel threatened. The People’s Republic could become the region’s hegemon. Europe would then find it harder to trade with a part of the world which could account forWhat’s more, the United States could react to a successful invasion of Taiwan either by retreating into isolationism or by switching its attention from Ukraine to China. The People’s Republic might also be emboldened to arm Russia.
The United States is also leaning on its allies to stop China from acquiring militarily useful technology such as advanced semiconductors. Insofar as this prevents Beijing from closing the military gap with the U.S. and its allies, that too could deter aggression. The G7 would be even more effective if it created a secretariat to coordinate its actions on export controls, a bit like the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls did during the Cold War.
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