Brazil’s Balanced Budget Dream Is Running Into Revenue Reality

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Brazil’s Balanced Budget Dream Is Running Into Revenue Reality
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Brazil Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has continued his public push for revenue-increasing measures that will help balance the country’s budget in 2024. Privately, however, his team is starting to acknowledge that he may break his promises and run a deficit next year.

Haddad, whose policy approach has helped soothe investor fears about leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s spending plans, needs $40 billion in revenue increases in order to turn an expected deficit of $29.1 billion this year into a balanced result in 2024. He has sought to implement a series of measures, including taxes on offshore companies, closed-end funds and dividends, in order to deliver on his pledge.

During an interview with the journalist Reinaldo Azevedo, Haddad criticized the amount of public funds given to lawmakers for projects in their home states as part of the federal budget, and said that while the lower house is powerful, it should not use its authorities “to humiliate the Senate and the federal government.”

Haddad spent this week trying to smooth things over with Lira and the lower house, and a meeting to discuss the vote on the fiscal plan is now expected to take place Monday evening. His economic team is hopeful an agreement between Lula and Lira can pave the way for the fiscal bill’s passage in time to align the budget plan with new spending rules.But Lula is also a potential obstacle to the zero-deficit plan, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

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