The first round of Brazil's presidential election has come and gone with no final victor, but some big losers have emerged: opinion pollsters.
. In some Senate and gubernatorial races, Bolsonaro allies outperformed opinion polls by more than 20 points.Coming after major misses in U.S. elections and the 2016 Brexit referendum, where surveys failed to detect the depth of conservative sentiment, Sunday's result in Brazil has public opinion firms scratching their heads once again."The 9-point different predicted by Atlas turned out to be only 5 points in the results," he wrote on Twitter on Monday.
A right-wing populist often criticized for comments about women and minorities, Bolsonaro has plenty of silent supporters who are reluctant to tell pollsters they support such a controversial firebrand, said Creomar de Souza, chief executive of Dharma Political Risk. Lula had largely declined to comment on those polls in an apparent attempt to keep his base mobilized - and to avoid mobilizing conservatives - but it was to little avail.
That may be feeding a vicious cycle in which conservatives decline to respond, leading the polls to underestimate their favored candidates, which only reinforces their distrust.
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