This week, Rio de Janeiro reported its 1st case of the new coronavirus COVID-19. That’s within the 2 week incubation period and within a week of Carnival’s last day on February 26
Brazil’s first case was discovered roughly 10 days ago and spread to family and friends by a man coming back from Italy. Italy is now the epicenter of the disease spreading throughout Europe.
Those days are gone. Brazil’s inflation is low. It’s interest rates are low. That’s the main reason why the Brazilian real is trading over R$4 even as the economy grows. “Instead, they will want to see how it performs against other Latin American currencies. If it’s worse than those other currencies, they will get involved. If inflation is rising because of it, they will get involved,” he says of central bank intervention in the currency markets.Investors are largely underweight Brazil.
It’s technically true that any Brazilian president has to be careful how much he provokes the Congress as an institution, including calling people to protest in the streets on March 15 against its leaders in the lower house and Senate. But populism gives Bolsonaro a unique level of resilience against the congress, arguably the most distrusted institution in all of Brazil. He’s doubling down on how he wants things to be run and doesn’t care if Congress likes it or not.
“Reform is a winner, especially if it also fans the anger and frustrations of the people who voted for Bolsonaro in 2018,” says Kevin Ivers, vice president of the DCI Group, a Washington DC based consultancy with hedge fund clients. “Disruption is the order of the day in Brazilian politics now, so you just have to get used to it,” he says.... [+]
Brazil’s economy grew 1.1% last year, after expanding 1.3% in each of the previous two years, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics said Wednesday. GDP increased 0.5% in the fourth quarter, down from 0.6% in the previous one. Consensus was for Brazil to grow over 2% last year.
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