Bracing for shallow Fed easing, bond investors take the middle of the curve road

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Bracing for shallow Fed easing, bond investors take the middle of the curve road
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Cineplex shuts its doors in Bridgewater | SaltWire #novascotia #cineplex #bridgewater #closureNEW YORK - Bond investors are selectively adding longer-dated maturities to their portfolios on bets the Federal Reserve will delay cutting interest rates and reduce them at a slower pace than in previous easing cycles, starting with a decision to stand pat on rates at this week's policy meeting.

"We have been in the shallow easing cycle camp for some time. There are structural factors in the economy that's going to keep inflation above the 2% target more often," said Matt Eagan, portfolio manager and co-head of the Full Discretion Team, at Loomis, Sayles & Company in Boston. "Inflation we think probably settles down on average at higher levels in the coming years than before...where we got used to long periods of low inflation and low rates," Carvalho said.The best way to play this scenario is to focus on buying the"belly" of the curve, such as five-year notes, which could provide the best bang for your buck, Loomis Sayles' Eagan said.

With a higher neutral rate, there's a floor under Treasury yields, analysts say, particularly for 10-year notes, which are typically bought by investors when the Fed starts cutting rates. In previous U.S. rate-cutting cycles in which the economy saw structurally declining growth and inflation, the policy rate would often fall by several percentage points, analysts said. Once the Fed began to ease, it tended to slash rates aggressively, and investors bought longer-dated Treasuries - the 10s and 30s - to take advantage of the more attractive returns as their yields sank.

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