The impact on the British economy, which is already teetering near recession, could be severe
THE PRESSURE is rising in the battle between Boris Johnson, who is determined to lead Britain out of the European Union with or without a deal on October 31st, and Parliament, where a majority of MPs want to stop a no-deal Brexit. This week opposition parties agreed that, when the Commons returned on September 3rd, they would try to hijack its agenda to pass a law calling for another extension of the Brexit deadline.
One conclusion from these events must be that the risk of no-deal is rising fast. Two months ago Mr Johnson talked of its being “a-million-to-one against”. Now he says it is “touch and go”. In political terms, no-deal has appeal to Mr Johnson, as the best chance of fending off Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party while trying to blame Brussels and Remainer “collaborators” for the mess.
As Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, notes, the chaos around no-deal would in fact maximise the uncertainty for businesses. Far from being harmonious, it would be acrimonious, especially since Mr Johnson says he would not pay the full £39bn Brexit bill accepted by Mrs May. And an early trade deal looks far-fetched. The EU would insist on the Brexit bill, protection of EU citizens’ rights and an Irish backstop as prerequisites.
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