Britain’s tax rise is popular, according to a poll. A plurality say it was acceptable to break the manifesto in order to fund social care. But that may not tell the full story
BORIS JOHNSON likes bold promises. When he became leader of the Conservatives in July 2019, he vowed to “fix the crisis in social care once and for all”. At the general election later in the year, his manifesto pledged not to raise a number of taxes. He won a landslide. Yet there is a problem with making contradictory promises: you can only keep one.
Money for social care was expected to come from NICs. While the basic rate of income tax has fallen from 30% in 1980 to 20% today, NICs have almost doubled, from 6.75% on most workers’ earnings to 13.25% including the new levy. Chancellors like the fact that the cost is split between employers and employees, and thus can be hidden from workers.
Instead, funding will rise by around £8bn a year for the next three years, nearly as much as lobby groups had sought. Warning lights, in the form of referral and activity data, are already flashing, says Siva Anandaciva, chief analyst at the King’s Fund, a think-tank. Another reason for the generosity, he suspects, “is that you have three years to deliver before you go into an election.
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