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LONDON, Sept 29 - The expanding shadows of private credit seem an odd place to lurk if central banks' 'higher-for-longer' mantra on interest rates suggests they keep things tight until something breaks.
Without much change in near-term assumptions about peaking Federal Reserve policy rates, investors are starting to reprice long-term bonds to cope with a potentially more resilient, higher-inflation economy where the unwinding of central banks' gigantic balance sheets of bonds also whips away market supports.
Bond analysts have differing models to measure this, but the New York Fed's estimate turned positive this week for the first time in more than two years - having been in negative territory for all but two brief occasions in the past eight years. Many have long-feared the more opaque performance in private credit - direct lending by asset managers that Moody's estimates has more than doubled in size since 2015 to some $1.5 trillion and which is now as big as the global junk bond market.
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