Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
“Governor Macklem sounded mostly dovish in remarks on Tuesday, noting that “we’ve been pleased to see inflation come all the way back to the 2% target.” And: “Shelter cost inflation remains elevated but has started to come down, and we are looking for it to moderate further.” Just the day before, we learned that one aspect of shelter costs—new home prices—were flat last month and have also been perfectly flat over the past year. The “house only” part is actually down 0.
“China produces 9mm more cars than it buys, upsetting the competitive balance in the West. Cutting ests on China, price/mix and lost share. There are better ways to play rate cuts. Upgrade dealers. Downgrade F, GM, RIVN, MGA, PHIN … Downgrading our US auto industry view to In-Line from Attractive. At a high level, our downgrade is driven by a combination of international, domestic and strategic factors that we believe may not be fully appreciated by investors.
This is clearly not great news for auto parts manufacturers where Canadian companies figure prominently.“Slower China demand and US shale oil growth trends were both inevitable as scale and maturity unfolded. We expect the dominant factor into YE’24 and H1′25 will be an elevated risk of global oversupply as OPEC+ production restraint cannot last forever. Consistent with our prior forecasts, we see 2024′s supply tightness flipping to a modest excess in 2025, then balanced in 2026 and 2027.
Inflation Oil Opec Price Production Prices United States Scott Barlow Gizmodo OECD
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