Liberal support is a shadow of what it was nine years ago. Why? In brief: Incumbency, inflation, immigration and identity
Just shy of nine years ago, Justin Trudeau led his Liberals to a majority government with 39.5 per cent of the popular vote. Today, depending on which poll you prefer, the Liberals have lost a shade less than half of that support. Where did it go, and why?
Too many years in office affronts the deepest sentiment in politics: time for a change. Democracy, after all, is about change: of leaders, policies, approaches. Issues change, challenges change, personnel change. What seems like a defensible policy today gets overtaken by events: to wit carbon pricing designed to induce people to alter car-buying-and-driving habits in the name of lowering emissions, something economists would draw up from their textbooks.
The core problem was the pressure of constrained supply and pent-up demand caused by the unforeseen and devastating effects of COVID-19. Government budgets were distended to provide help for those afflicted and protect those who were not. The curtailing of domestic commerce, the shuttering of public institutions, the fettering of international trade and supply chains – the results were grim, for individuals, institutions and governments, and not just in Canada.
Just about everywhere else in the Western world, governments either discouraged immigrants or experienced a political backlash against migration. Brexit was about many British historical fantasies but also fears of a loss of control over borders that allowed too many “foreigners” into Blighty. France, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and other Western European countries witnessed the rise of anti-immigrant, nationalist parties.
Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper knew the importance of patriotism. He tried therefore to pin patriotic sentiments on Conservative breasts. He talked up the War of 1812 and had ato Canada’s “victory” built on Parliament Hill. He had the military march through the streets of Ottawa after the Afghan War. He was never one for flowery or emotional rhetoric, but as prime minister he tried in his own way to appeal to patriotic sentiments.
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