Bitcoin Dips Below $95,000 as Powell's Hawkish Stance Dampens Rate Cut Hopes

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Bitcoin Dips Below $95,000 as Powell's Hawkish Stance Dampens Rate Cut Hopes
BITCOINFEDERAL RESERVEJEROME POWELL
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Bitcoin's early week recovery falters after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments suggest a cautious approach to rate cuts, pushing prices down to $95,000. The cryptocurrency's price action is closely tied to investor sentiment regarding the Fed's monetary policy, with cheaper capital traditionally boosting risk-on assets like Bitcoin. The upcoming January CPI report holds significant weight, as a higher-than-expected inflation figure could delay rate cuts and pressure Bitcoin downwards.

Early week recovery in Bitcoin stalled at $98,000 and subsequently plunged to $95,000 following a hawkish outlook on interest rate cuts from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell . During his semi-annual monetary report to the U.S. Congress on February 12th, Powell reinforced that the agency was not 'in a hurry to change its policy stance.' He stated, 'Our policy stance is now less restrictively than it had been, and the economy remains strong.

We do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance.' For context, lower interest rates signify cheaper capital, which generally fuels bullish sentiment for risk-on assets like Bitcoin and stocks. However, after a hawkish hold in last month's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the slow Fed rate cut outlook and Trump's tariffs have exacerbated bearish sentiment. U.S. labor markets and inflation status ultimately determine the Fed's rate cut decisions. Consequently, markets will shift their focus to crucial inflation data, the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release on February 12th. According to data tracked by Forex Factory, the forecasted target for monthly change for last month's CPI is 0.3%. If the actual CPI surpasses this figure, it could be perceived as bearish as it might prompt the Fed to maintain the interest rate unchanged for an extended period. Conversely, a lower CPI print could slightly bolster the market and the probability of a rate cut. It remains to be seen whether the CPI print will influence market pricing. Nevertheless, the aforementioned headline risk has subdued overall demand, as per the Coinbase Premium Index. This indicator tracks the appetite of U.S. investors for Bitcoin and exhibits a positive correlation with BTC price action. Following a surge in early February, the indicator has returned to a neutral level. Similarly, BTC retraced from $101,000 to $95,000 over the same period. Any further decline in the Coinbase Premium Index into negative territory could impede BTC's short-term recovery, despite the impending supply shock as the over-the-counter (OTC) balance contracts. In the meantime, the cryptocurrency's volatile market condition may persist, according to the Coinglass liquidation heatmap. Pockets of liquidity (bright levels) are evident on both sides of the price action.

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BITCOIN FEDERAL RESERVE JEROME POWELL INTEREST RATE CUTS CPI INFLATION MARKET SENTIMENT OTC BALANCE LIQUIDITY

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