Josh Sherman is a Toronto-based journalist. His work has appeared in the Globe & Mail, VICE, Toronto Life, and many others.
According to the Building Industry and Land Development Association , every 1,000 new condo units that are cancelled erases $400M in potential economic activity in the GTA.On a single job site, Nick Ainis’s construction-management business employs hundreds of sub-contractors. Combined, his army of trades can log upwards of a hundred thousand well-paid hours putting up a mid-sized condo building.
Roles included everything from excavators to dig the foundation and form workers to build the bones of the structure, to waterproofing specialists, appliance installers, drywallers, painters, and security to monitor the site — not to mention consultants. “111,000 hours of manpower went into this project,” says Ainis, citing a figure from an internal financial report on the mid-rise condo building.
If there is a silver lining to the deathly silence in the new-condo market, it’s that it’s allowing projects that have been delayed by material and labour shortages to get topped off. “We just don’t have enough people to be completing all these sites and starting new ones as well,” Edward Jegg, a research manager atLast year, developers delivered a record of nearly 28,000 units in the GTA, with this year tracking 25% above that level.
So how can there be talk of supply concerns when so many units have flooded the market? Jegg from Altus Group suggests a “big issue” is that land with redevelopment potential isn’t trading like it used to. These properties can take three to six years to prepare for development, so when pent-up demand returns there’s a mid-term risk that the building industry won’t be able to respond. “It’s been a dramatic falloff in these land sales,” says Jegg.
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