The seven states that rely on the Colorado River for water need to cut about 25 percent of their use for the coming year
“This has basically been a hundred years coming, because we’ve always allocated more water on paper than there is in the river,” says Eric Kuhn, former General Manager of the Colorado River District.Flows on the river may have shrunk, but the demands on it have not. Over the last 20 years, the Upper Basin states have used about 3.7 million acre-feet a year—half of their allotment—and want to use more. The Lower Basin states already use their whole 7.5 million acre-feet.
In 2019, as it became apparent that even more aggressive action might be needed, the states negotiated a “Drought Contingency Plan” that asked for bigger cuts at each risk moment. But even under the very worst-case scenarios, that plan asked all the water users together to trim about 1.375 million acre-feet.In early August of 2021, Lake Mead was at 1,068 feet above sea level, or 35 percent full.
The most unprecedented changes could come in California, which has historically used an average 4.4 million acre-feet a year. It has some of the most “senior” rights, meaning it’s the last to feel the pinch during shortages. But even the vast irrigated zone in the Imperial Valley—the source of about two-thirds of the U.S.’s winter produce, and an area that has almost never had water curtailed—could see fields fallowed this year.
Also crucial to the ongoing negotiations are the 30 Native American tribes in the basin, which hold water rights to about a quarter, and potentially more, of the river’s current flow. Those rights have not historically been fully recognized or apportioned, but tribal leaders are looking to bolster their position during negotiations. They want access to the water to which they are entitled and to participate in solutions for making it through the ongoing drought.