The sheer number of races in which Republicans are on the defensive, along with Trump’s current struggles, are making a Democratic Senate look like a better-than-even bet
Democrat Mark Kelly has built a solid lead over appointed Senator Martha McSally in Arizona. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images Savvy Democrats generally understand that if Joe Biden wants to get anything done as president, Democrats need to take the Senate. If Republicans maintain control, Mitch McConnell stands waiting like a bridge troll to obstruct anything a new administration or its House allies might try to accomplish.
Recent Senate polling, as analyzed by Geoffrey Skelley for FiveThirtyEight, is generally very donkey-positive: Republicans may have missed out on securing another potentially vulnerable seat when Secretary of State Mike Pompeo passed up the contest to succeed Republican senator Pat Roberts, which made the highly controversial nativist and vote-suppressor Kris Kobach the GOP front-runner. Kobach lost the 2018 gubernatorial race pretty badly to Democrat Laura Kelly.
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