Bank of Canada seen on hold even as economy accelerates

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Bank of Canada seen on hold even as economy accelerates
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The Bank of Canada is expected to take in stride surprising recent economic strength and leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday, pinning its hopes on activity cooling as higher borrowing costs sink in, analysts said.

February's surprisingly strong figures have led economists to revise up their GDP estimates, with the median forecast of six economists surveyed by Reuters pegging first-quarter growth at 2.5%, far higher than the BoC's projection of 0.5%.

Investors reason that the full impact of higher borrowing costs has yet to be felt, and recent stress in the global banking system has fueled concern of a credit crunch, including in the United States. Canada sends 75% of its exports to its southern neighbor. "We suspect that the Bank of Canada will view the apparent strength in Q1 GDP similarly, and increase its estimate of potential growth."

Economists say that rapid population growth as well as easing supply chain disruptions could add to Canada's potential growth, which was last estimated by the BoC to be 2.25% on average over 2023 and 2024.

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