Bank of Canada expected to cut policy rate again on Wednesday

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Bank of Canada expected to cut policy rate again on Wednesday
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Analysts expect rate cut as inflation fell to 2.7 per cent in June, but questions remain on how large a trim to anticipate

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks during a news conference on the Bank of Canada 's rate announcement on June 5, in Ottawa.The Bank of Canada is expected to deliver a second dose of interest-rate relief this week, as inflation moderates and economic growth remains sluggish.

Mr. Macklem said last month that it’s “reasonable” to expect further rate cuts if price pressures keep easing. Since those remarks, May inflation data came in surprisingly hot. But the June numbers, published last week, showed inflation back on a downward path, with headline inflation There was a sour note in the June inflation data. The bank’s two preferred measures of core inflation, which strip out the most volatile price movements, moved higher on a three-month basis.

The unemployment rate in Canada has risen to 6.4 per cent from a record-low 4.8 per cent two years ago. Businesses aren’t laying off workers in large numbers, but job creation has failed to keep pace with rapid population growth. A looser labour market implies slower wage growth, which can influence how companies set prices.

“The economy is now operating with visible disinflationary economic slack, as evidenced by labour market softness and an extended run of mediocre growth that has trailed the Bank’s estimate of the economy’s non-inflationary potential,“ wrote Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, in a note to clients.

It might not, however, have a big impact on interest rates for fixed-rate mortgages. These are determined by bond yields. And bond markets have already adjusted in expectation of monetary policy changes, said Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada, in an interview.

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