When you look scientifically at the history of militant groups, one thing becomes immediately clear about ISIS: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was one stupid leader.
ends. It analyzes hundreds of militant groups from all over the world to discern why some succeed and others fail. I come with welcome news for the rebel leader. My research reveals that he possesses a surprising amount of agency over his political destiny. Triumph is possible. But only when he knows what to do. It turns out there's a science to victory in militant history. But even rebels must follow rules.
And the third rule is for the leader to distance the organization from terrorism whenever wayward subordinates flout his targeting guidelines by attacking civilians. Like CEOs, smart militant leaders know how to brand their organization for maximum appeal when members publicly shame it. In practice, this means denying organizational responsibility when members kill civilians.
Baghdadi clearly didn't understand the most important rule of sparing civilians to reduce the audience costs. Like Antar Zouabri of the Armed Islamic Group of Algeria, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi of the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Iraq and other imbecilic militant leaders throughout world history, Baghdadi failed to appreciate that blowing up innocent people only jeopardizes the cause by turning the population against you and reducing the likelihood of political concessions.
And Baghdadi broke the third cardinal rule by publicly broadcasting in lurid detail ISIS' heinous crimes against civilians over social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook. Rather than denying organizational responsibility for the carnage, he encouraged members to brag about it, leaving no doubt that his group was the baddest one on the block.
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