“With all GCC members dependent on the US as their ultimate security guarantor but also increasingly reliant on China for oil/gas exports, the stakes are high” Opinion | GiorgioCafiero
Indeed, the growing economic relationships between Gulf Cooperation Council countries and China have given the former reason to engage in ‘fence-sitting’ amid Washington and Beijing’s new “Cold War”.
With all GCC members dependent on the US as their ultimate security guarantor but also increasingly reliant on China for oil/gas exports, the stakes are high for these six Arabian countries. Some of the key episodes include the US- and UK-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, Barack Obama’s response to chemical warfare in Syria a decade later, Donald Trump’s chaotic presidency, and particularly how Trump’s administration reacted to the Saudi Aramco attacks of September 2019.
As the Gulf monarchies seek greater diversification in their foreign relations due to growing trust issues in their partnerships with Washington, China will remain positioned to easily take advantage of such tensions between the US and its traditional partners in the Arabian Peninsula. How will the leaders in GCC capitals react to these dynamics if Gulf states soon have less room to maneuver?
Looking ahead, major geopolitical challenges that GCC members face in the 21st century will relate to difficult and sensitive questions about navigating rising temperatures in US-China relations. With there being bipartisan support in Washington for more militaristic approaches to countering Beijing, this new “Cold War” is unlikely to wind down anytime soon.
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