Factory activity in Asia and Europe weakened in December 2024, with expectations for the new year declining due to escalating trade uncertainties stemming from a potential second Donald Trump presidency and China's fragile economic recovery. A manufacturing slowdown intensified in the euro zone, with Germany, France, and Italy remaining in an industrial recession. While manufacturing PMIs in Asia showed slowing activity in China and South Korea, there were glimmers of improvement in Taiwan and Southeast Asia. Trump's tariff pledges on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China further fueled anxieties. China's manufacturing PMI edged down, indicating modest growth despite increased policy support. In Europe, the manufacturing PMI dropped below the 50 growth threshold, reflecting a decline in new orders and a continued contraction in activity.
Factory activity in Asia and Europe ended 2024 on a soft note as expectations for the new year soured amid growing trade risks from a second Donald Trump presidency and China ’s fragile economic recovery.
U.S. president-elect Trump has pledged to impose tariffs across the board, with bigger barriers on imports from three major trading partners – Mexico, Canada and China. “And this improvement should carry over into early 2025,” Ng said. “But the boost probably won’t last more than a few quarters, with Trump likely to follow through on his tariff threat before long and persistent structural imbalances still weighing on the economy.”
Factory activity in Germany fell deeper into contraction territory last month on sharper declines in output and new orders while activity in France declined at the fastest pace in more than four years. South Korea’s central bank governor said on Thursday the pace of monetary policy easing would need to be flexible this year due to heightened political and economic uncertainty.
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