We need to stop obsessing about the technical definition of a recession and focus on how we can cure our economic sclerosis
The yield spread on U.S. 10-year to two-year Treasury bonds finally came out of inversion after 787 days on Aug. 30. For more than two years, its inversion – when short rates are higher than long rates – had been cited countless times in investing and economic circles as reason to believe a recession was about to get under way.Forecasters who were predicting a soft landing and no recession have declared victory. The rally in equity markets last month seems to reflect that jubilation.
A technical recession, like we typically have had in the past, is cyclical. We are having a secular problem. And this is all leading to political issues that may very well get worse. But the outlook is murkier elsewhere in the West. Canada, as well as the United Kingdom, France and other European nations, are in a state of economic sclerosis.
This economy is different from the past. Government employment has risen while manufacturing jobs have not. Migration has surged and, in Canada’s case, the population has been exploding. Bluntly, the productivity of new arrivals is less than optimal owing to a variety of factors such as a lack of opportunities compared with previous generations and a mismatch of skillsets.
Recession Inflation Economy Past Population Point Yield Royal Bank Of Canada United Kingdom North America
Canada Latest News, Canada Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Treasuries, Yen Rally After Weak US Jobs Report: Markets Wrap(Bloomberg) -- The effects of a rally in Treasuries spread across Asian markets Thursday, weakening the dollar and supporting the yen as investors prepared...
Read more »
Treasuries Inch Lower as Traders Question Pace of Fed Rate Cuts(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell at the start of the week with traders looking ahead to US inflation data for further clues on whether the Federal Reserve will...
Read more »
TD Bank Resolves Treasuries Spoofing Case Amid Wider US ProbesToronto-Dominion Bank will pay more than $20 million as part of a deal with US prosecutors and regulators to resolve investigations over a former trader’s alleged placement of “spoof” orders to manipulate the US Treasuries market.
Read more »
TD Bank Resolves Treasuries Spoofing Case Amid Wider US Probes(Bloomberg) -- Toronto-Dominion Bank will pay more than $20 million as part of a deal with US prosecutors and regulators to resolve investigations over a...
Read more »
US Two-Year Yield Falls to Lowest Since 2022 Ahead of CPI Report(Bloomberg) -- US Treasuries rallied, driving the two-year yield to the lowest level since 2022 ahead of a closely watched inflation reading that could...
Read more »
Asian shares try to stabilise after global sell-off; focus on US dataAsian share markets tried to regain their footing on Thursday after a steep sell-off, while a rally in Treasuries dented the dollar and lifted the yen as U.S...
Read more »