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LONDON, Dec 12 - Euro zone markets swung on Thursday after the European Central Bank gave up a long-standing hawkish tilt but analysts were split on the signals it gave on how fast it will cut rates.
And as ECB chief Christine Lagarde spoke, markets clung onto further signs of caution, sending interest-rate sensitive German two-year yields up around 5 basis points and Italian 10-year yields over 10 bps higher. After all, markets are betting the bank's key rate will fall to roughly 1.75% by end-2025, the bottom end of ECB estimates Lagarde pointed to on Thursday putting the rate at 1.75%-2.5%.Arne Petimezas, director of research at Dutch broker AFS Group, said Lagarde's comment on services inflation still remaining high also made her sound"quite hawkish".
And they still bet on non-negligible chances of jumbo 50 basis-point moves at the next two meetings -- around a 20% chance in January, and a nearly 30% chance of one in March."Lagarde was as dovish as she could be," said Danske Bank chief analyst Piet Christiansen, pointing to her comments on inflation risks now being two-sided, labor demand weakening and downside risks to growth.
ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said he thought the ECB was paying to much attention to inflation, given that many believe the ECB was too late to hike rates when inflation surged.
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