College hoops fans might want to think again before pinning their hopes of a perfect March Madness bracket on artificial intelligence. While the advancement ...
into everyday life has made “AI” one of the buzziest phrases of the past year, its application in bracketology circles is not so new. Even so, the annual bracket contests still provide plenty of surprises for computer science aficionados who've spent years honing their models with past NCAA Tournament results.
The odds of crafting a perfect bracket are stacked against any competitor, however advanced their tools may be. An “informed fan” making certain assumptions based on previous results — such as a 1-seed beating a 16-seed — has a 1 in 2 billion chance at perfection, according to Ezra Miller, a mathematics and statistical science professor at Duke.“Roughly speaking, it would be like choosing a random person in the Western Hemisphere," he said.
“It’s a fair fight. There’s people who know a lot about basketball and can use what they know," said Jeff Sonas, a statistical chess analyst who helped found the competition. "It is also possible for someone who doesn’t know a lot about basketball but is good at learning how to use data to make predictions.”in the first round, takes it a different direction. Since 2020, Ford has tried to predict which schools will make the 68-team field.
“Did the players get enough sleep last night? Is that going to affect the player’s performance?” he said. “Personal things going on — we can never adjust to it using data alone.” In that mystery, Chartier finds a useful reminder from March Madness: "The beauty of sports, and the beauty of life itself, is the randomness that we can't predict."
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