In the week ahead, the April jobs report is expected to show the highest unemployment since 1939.
But investors are watching the restarting of the economy, now underway at some level in many states. "If they go well that's a good thing, but if in a week or two, you start to see some bad virus numbers, that'll be a blow to confidence," said Michael Schumacher, head of rate strategy at Wells Fargo.Stocks started May with a sharp decline Friday, after a 12.7% gain in the S&P 500 in April, its best month since 1987.
Stanley said he expects the unemployment rate to be a better-than-consensus 11.6% in April before it rises again in May. "This is all a stab in the dark," he said. filed in the previous six weeks. Economists say with such big unprecedented numbers, it is difficult to predict the unemployment rate since some people may have been temporarily unemployed and expect to return to work.
Stanley said he is also watching Tuesday's ISM nonmanufacturing data, a look at the services sector during April. A cross section of March data shows it was the services sector that took the biggest hit in the shutdowns, and it's unclear how quickly it can recover.
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