Is TikTok actually going to get banned in the U.S. this year? Analysts weigh in as Republican Sen. Josh Hawley appears poised to seek an expedited vote on the issue.
A fresh push in the bipartisan effort to ban TikTok in the U.S. is expected Wednesday, as Republican Sen. Josh Hawley appears poised to seek an expedited vote on the issue.
A different bill aimed at TikTok is widely viewed as having a better chance. The Restrict Act, proposed by Democratic Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia and Republican Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, would give the U.S. commerce secretary new abilities to ban foreign technologies on national-security grounds. It has the support of the Biden administration, and as of Wednesday it had 21 co-sponsors in the Senate.
The chances for a ban are above 90%, said Wedbush analysts led by Daniel Ives in a note on Sunday, because the hearing on Capitol Hill was a “disaster” for TikTok. “We have heard some other analysts speculate that legislative restrictions on the company could move much faster in the wake of this hearing,” Marcus said in a note. “But we would take this with a grain of salt. Despite widespread hostility to TikTok, there are still competing visions in Congress about the right response, and it will be very hard to move standalone legislation. We still think the likely window for Congressional action is [the fourth quarter], and that the odds are below 50%.
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