Analysis: What the political shift in rural counties looks like since 2000
The sociological exploration aside, it’s useful to understand what that political shift looks like. It is the case that rural areas have grown more densely Republican even over the past two decades and, in fact, that this shift has happened quickly enough that it helps offset the decline in rural population that’s happening at the same time.
I was curious what that shift looked like geographically. So, using data from MIT Election Lab, I created a map showing the shifts by county since 2000. Red arrows indicate counties that voted more Republican relative to the national margin than they had in 2000. Blue arrows voted more heavily Democratic. Each arrow tracks the extent of that shift, with longer arrows indicating a bigger shift.
Smaller cities generally shifted to vote more Republican, though there’s some regionality at play here. In the West, for example, the shift was to the Democrats, though not dramatically. And then there are the rural counties. Again, there are regional differences: the Northeast moved a bit to the Democrats, as was the case in Colorado. But then there’s that area in the southern Appalachian region.
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