Analysis: Trump is turning the midterms from a referendum into a choice
American politics can be divided crudely into two eras: BDT and SDT, or Before Donald Trump and Since Donald Trump. What was true before he came on the scene isn’t necessarily true now. Trump broke rules and assumptions on his way to winning the White House, broke more in office and is still breaking them. And that could haunt the Republicans in November.
Though no one can predict whether turnout this fall will even come close to what happened in 2018, there are signs all around that this will be another SDT election and not necessarily one that conforms to what was the norm previously. Biden alone cannot change the midterm from a referendum on his presidency to a choice election. But he has an unexpected partner in this effort: Trump and the Republicans themselves. Trump remains in the forefront of this election year, continuing his baseless claims about a stolen election, caught up in twin Justice Department investigations over his retention of classified documents and the Jan.
The Kansas vote was unique and doesn’t translate directly to candidate vs. candidate contests. But the recent Democratic victory in ain New York state, where abortion was a central issue, provided another indication of the power of the issue to redraw assumptions about November and has spooked Republicans.
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