ANALYSIS: The Liberal revolt is about Trudeau, communications, and the carbon tax

Liberal Revolt News

ANALYSIS: The Liberal revolt is about Trudeau, communications, and the carbon tax
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Many Liberal MPs unhappy with their party's performance say change can only happen with a new leader, better communications and a plan to drop unpopular policies.

After a relative lull over the summer, it appears that there are renewed calls from within Canada's Liberal caucus for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to quit. That sentiment came in the form of a private letter signed by over two dozen Members of Parliament, but no cabinet ministers. There is a feeling that Trudeau has been in power too long, and that a fresh face is needed to prevent the Liberals from suffering a massive electoral defeat. Mackenzie Gray has more.

The complainers say there has been no promised communications campaign, no change in policies, and no change in the way the PM and his senior aides interact with caucus.

It will be no surprise to him that many of the incumbent Liberals he will be trying help re-elect think the job would be easier with a new leader. Indeed, one of those MPs seeking a leadership change said part of the problem is that there is almost no one seeking a revolt who will say so when the TV cameras are pointed at them.Someone, this MP said, needs to either hold a press conference or organize a sustained “storm the microphone” campaign at the next Liberal caucus meeting which, given the ‘break week’ ahead, is not likely to occur until Oct. 23.

Liberals had gathered that August for the first in-person retreat after the pandemic to confront a series of polls that found them trailing the leaderless Conservatives by a few points.In September of that year, the Conservatives would find their leader, Pierre Poilievre, and now, two years later, the anxiety of 2022 has turned to the panic of 2024 with multiple polls showing the Liberals 20 points behind and facing an absolute rout if an election were held this fall.

Conservative campaigner Cole Hogan, a principal at gt&co, tracks the amount of money each party spends on Facebook advertising, figures which Facebook itself discloses about all political parties. For the week ending Oct. 5,compared to $3,086 by the Liberals and $1,240 by the NDP. Hogan has documented week after week of this kind of lopsided ad spending ever since that Nanaimo meeting and before it. The data reinforces the views of complaining Liberals that nothing has been done.

Those who want a leadership change tend to be ‘blue’ Liberals, the kind who might have supported Paul Martin or John Manley in ancient leadership races. Some believe someone like François-Philippe Champagne, who represents Jean Chrétien’s old Shawinigan riding and serves as Trudeau’s minister for innovation, science and industry, would immediately improve the Liberals’ fortunes if he were leader.

Indeed, one of those MPs seeking a leadership change said part of the problem is that there is almost no one seeking a revolt who will say so when the TV cameras are pointed at them. After a relative lull over the summer, it appears that there are renewed calls from within Canada's Liberal caucus for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to quit. That sentiment came in the form of a private letter signed by over two dozen Members of Parliament, but no cabinet ministers. There is a feeling that Trudeau has been in power too long, and that a fresh face is needed to prevent the Liberals from suffering a massive electoral defeat. Mackenzie Gray has more.

The complainers say there has been no promised communications campaign, no change in policies, and no change in the way the PM and his senior aides interact with caucus. “Andrew Bevan knows how to win,” David Herle posted on his social accounts. Herle has run several political and federal campaigns for the Liberals.

In New Brunswick Liberal leader Susan Holt has also called on Ottawa to cancel any hikes in the carbon tax. And now there are members of Trudeau’s own caucus — largely MPs from English-speaking Canada — who think it’s time to do what Polievre’s Conservatives have been constantly calling for and “Axe the Tax.”Global News spoke this weekend with many members of the Liberal caucus.

Those PMO aides would almost certainly have started with members of the Atlantic caucus. Last Wednesday, while Trudeau was out of the country, the chair of the Atlantic caucus, Nova Scotia’s Kody Blois, startled the weekly national caucus meeting by declaring that Atlantic MPs had just come from a “a difficult but frank discussion about the future of the party” and then he simply walked out of the closed-door national caucus meeting.

In September of that year, the Conservatives would find their leader, Pierre Poilievre, and now, two years later, the anxiety of 2022 has turned to the panic of 2024 with multiple polls showing the Liberals 20 points behind and facing an absolute rout if an election were held this fall.

And while Liberal MPs were promised some sort of marketing campaign to boost their fortunes, the Conservatives produced slick TV ads that aired on legacy television networks. The Liberal response? Trudeau didAt least one of the common complaints of many MPs who spoke to Global News this weekend was addressed Sunday when the party finally named a national campaign director, a position that had been vacant for more than a month after Jeremy Broadhurst resigned from the job.

Those who want a leadership change tend to be ‘blue’ Liberals, the kind who might have supported Paul Martin or John Manley in ancient leadership races. Some believe someone like François-Philippe Champagne, who represents Jean Chrétien’s old Shawinigan riding and serves as Trudeau’s minister for innovation, science and industry, would immediately improve the Liberals’ fortunes if he were leader.

And yet, back in Ottawa, Trudeau loyalists had already begun the hunt for the rebels. Global News has learned that while Trudeau was in the air, PMO aides were already phoning around to Liberal MPs trying to find those they suspected of signing the document demanding change.Those PMO aides would almost certainly have started with members of the Atlantic caucus.

Liberal MPs were told at that 2022 caucus that there was a plan to turn things around. They were told the same thing when they met last month in Nanaimo, B.C., for this year’s summer caucus retreat. Indeed, applause could be heard from the closed-door meeting in the room at the conference centre in downtown Nanaimo when Trudeau’s director of strategic communications, Max Valiquette, presented his marketing plan for the months ahead.

“Good at reading people, wise in understanding how to help them trust him. And a very nice guy,” Robin Sears, the former principal secretary to NDP leader Ed Broadbent, wrote at Bevan’s LinkedIn page as an endorsement when Bevan joined Freeland’s office. It’s not just leaders that need to change, say some of the complainers, it’s time also to abandon some cherished policies including the carbon tax.Indeed, several progressive-minded politicians across the country have already decided that it is impossible to campaign and win on a federal carbon price. New Democrat premiers Wab Kinew in Manitoba and David Eby in B.C. have called on the feds to scrap the carbon tax.

Someone, this MP said, needs to either hold a press conference or organize a sustained “storm the microphone” campaign at the next Liberal caucus meeting which, given the ‘break week’ ahead, is not likely to occur until Oct. 23.first reported Friday that a movement was underway to get rebels to commit in writing to seek a new leader. Other news organizations, including Global News, have confirmed the existence of such a document. But how many have signed? It might be 20. It might be 30.

Liberals had gathered that August for the first in-person retreat after the pandemic to confront a series of polls that found them trailing the leaderless Conservatives by a few points. Conservative campaigner Cole Hogan, a principal at gt&co, tracks the amount of money each party spends on Facebook advertising, figures which Facebook itself discloses about all political parties. For the week ending Oct. 5,compared to $3,086 by the Liberals and $1,240 by the NDP. Hogan has documented week after week of this kind of lopsided ad spending ever since that Nanaimo meeting and before it. The data reinforces the views of complaining Liberals that nothing has been done.

“Andrew Bevan knows how to win,” David Herle posted on his social accounts. Herle has run several political and federal campaigns for the Liberals. In New Brunswick Liberal leader Susan Holt has also called on Ottawa to cancel any hikes in the carbon tax. And now there are members of Trudeau’s own caucus — largely MPs from English-speaking Canada — who think it’s time to do what Polievre’s Conservatives have been constantly calling for and “Axe the Tax.”Global News spoke this weekend with many members of the Liberal caucus.

Those PMO aides would almost certainly have started with members of the Atlantic caucus. Last Wednesday, while Trudeau was out of the country, the chair of the Atlantic caucus, Nova Scotia’s Kody Blois, startled the weekly national caucus meeting by declaring that Atlantic MPs had just come from a “a difficult but frank discussion about the future of the party” and then he simply walked out of the closed-door national caucus meeting.

In September of that year, the Conservatives would find their leader, Pierre Poilievre, and now, two years later, the anxiety of 2022 has turned to the panic of 2024 with multiple polls showing the Liberals 20 points behind and facing an absolute rout if an election were held this fall.

And while Liberal MPs were promised some sort of marketing campaign to boost their fortunes, the Conservatives produced slick TV ads that aired on legacy television networks. The Liberal response? Trudeau didAt least one of the common complaints of many MPs who spoke to Global News this weekend was addressed Sunday when the party finally named a national campaign director, a position that had been vacant for more than a month after Jeremy Broadhurst resigned from the job.

It will be no surprise to him that many of the incumbent Liberals he will be trying help re-elect think the job would be easier with a new leader. News of this ‘revolt’ broke publicly on Friday as Trudeau and his closest aides were in the midst of a 13-hour flight from Laos to a refuelling stop in Honolulu on an RCAF aircraft with no Internet connectivity. Trade Minister Mary Ng, who was travelling with Trudeau, told reporters during that refuelling stop that she did not learn of this revolt until she fired up her phone as the flight was landing in Hawaii.

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