Analysis: Cinderella runs haven’t historically occurred as often in the women’s tournament, but recent increases in parity suggest that’s changing.
Historical chance for a No. 11 seed to reach the Sweet 16: 10.2 percent
The Her Hoop Stats prediction model loves the Blue Raiders, and it’s easy to see why after a quick review of their résumé. The Conference USA champions cruised to a 28-4 record, including a perfect 3-0 against teams with. The Blue Raiders spent five weeks in the AP top 25, including a No. 25 ranking in the first poll of March. Perhaps most eye-opening was MTSU’s dominant 67-49 victory over then-No. 18 Louisville on Dec.
Their plethora of scoring options, potent defense and proven ability to beat strong competition should make the Blue Raiders a tough out for No. 6 Colorado in the round of 64.Historical chance for a No. 12 seed to reach the Sweet 16: 3.1 percent Consisting almost exclusively of shots within 10 feet of the rim and three-pointers, the Florida Gulf Coast shot chart this season is an analytics aficionado’s dream. The Eagles’ five-out offense led Division I in three-point rate for a fourth consecutive year, with over 47 percent of their scoring attempts coming from beyond the arc. They attempted 26 midrange jumpers all season, per CBB Analytics; Iowa’s Caitlin Clark alone put up 110 such shots.
But will it add up to a Cinderella run, starting against No. 5 seed Washington State? The Eagles pulled off a first-round upset against Virginia Tech last March and, despite the loss of two-time Her Hoop Stats Becky Hammon Award winner Kierstan Bell, are arguably an improved team. They’ve seen upticks in several metrics, including scoring margin per 100 possessions.
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