Like Obama, who could count on steady support from a core constituency — black people — Trump enjoys near-unconditional backing from white evangelicals
As you consider the potential impact on the 2020 presidential race of the Mueller report, or Joe Biden’s handsiness, or President Donald Trump’s sudden resumption of the GOP’s anti-Obamacare crusade, or even interest rates, keep a corner of your mind open to this possibility: None of it — or almost none of it — makes any difference.
After that tornado of events passed, 42.3 per cent of the public approved of Trump’s job performance, in an average of polls reported by FiveThirtyEight, the political website; 52.8 per cent disapproved. Two years previously, on April 1, 2017, the figures were 41.5 per cent approve, 52.5 per cent disapprove.
The second came in the first three months of his presidency, when the public went from being evenly divided on his job performance to disapproving of it by double digits. The last remaining Democrats and independents willing to give Trump a chance apparently recoiled from his belligerent tweets and from such policies as his initial attempts to limit Muslim arrivals in the United States.
The United States is now thoroughly sorted into two camps: a large minority of people who are pretty much pro-Trump, and a majority that are pretty much anti-. Obviously a major downturn in the economy or the outbreak of a war could change all that, but neither appears likely today. A fair assumption is that Trump’s share of the popular vote in 2016, 46.1 per cent, represents his likely total in 2020, give or take a percentage point.
But the bad news for Democrats is that, beyond a certain point, Trump is impervious to negative campaigning. As the past two years show, there is only so much Democrats can do to push his support levels down, or to push their candidate’s up, for that matter.
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