Analysis: Biden seeks a Democratic primary that looks like the Democratic Party
As the years have passed, though, that has meant an increasing divergence between the composition of the electorate in the two earliest-voting primary states — Iowa and New Hampshire — and the party itself. In 1976, those two states were between 6 points and 8 points Whiter than the party, as measured by the biennial General Social Survey. In 2020, they were between 18 points and 22 points Whiter.
Over time, the party has increased the clout of less-heavily-White states in the primary process. If you consider just the first five states to vote in each of the past 12 primaries , you can see that they were often heavily White, even as the party grew more diverse. In the period from 1980 to 1992, only twice were states that were among the first to vote more diverse than the party itself. Each of the other 18 primaries or caucuses during that period were in states that were Whiter than the party. During that period, the first five states to vote were, on average, between 6 points and 12 points Whiter than the party.The reason this matters is clear.
I strongly oppose the President's deeply misguided proposal for changes to the primary calendar. Make no mistake, New Hampshire's law is clear and our primary will continue to be First in the Nation.Predictably, Iowans and New Hampshirites are not thrilled about this development. Sen. Maggie Hassan blasted it on Twitter, noting that there are challenges beyond simple will to consider. There are a lot of reasons for this objection, certainly, but one is uncomplicated: money.
Holding the first contests in New Hampshire and Iowa means a surge of spending on television ads, on staffing, and even on things like tours of famous political locations, as I
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