Analysis: Are Democrats risking a Rust Belt loss in 2020 by going too far left?
Former vice president Joe Biden campaigns on March 6, 2018, with Conor Lamb, a Democrat who won a special election in a conservative-leaning western Pennsylvania congressional district. By Aaron Blake Aaron Blake Senior political reporter, writing for The Fix Email Bio Follow March 6 at 6:05 AM There is a growing disagreement about Democrats’ 2020 strategy. Most of the current candidates in the race have moved to the left on major issues.
But is there really any reason to believe that? Is there something unique about the Midwest and/or the Rust Belt that is particularly averse to these ideas? Or is this just, as the party’s leftward leaders would argue, unnecessary timidity?The first thing we can say is that these states don’t have extraordinary amounts of voters who self-identify as “moderate,” relative to other swing states.
The Green New Deal is too new an idea for there to be exhaustive polling, but the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication in 2017 offered state-by-state breakdowns on broader climate change matters. It found that all four of these states were within one percentage point of the national average on the idea of setting carbon dioxide emissions caps on coal power plants.
But a state-by-state look adds more nuance. The Data for Progress think tank crunched numbers from the Kaiser Family Foundation on this question last year. And while the think tank leans left and advocates for single-payer, what we’re interested in here is not the gross level of support but relative support levels between states.
We modeled support for a job guarantee nationwide. It performs stunningly well. Democrats can run on a job guarantee everywhere. https://t.co/Uk3GR5Eu6Q pic.twitter.com/N4YPSY1Xpb
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