Analysis: Trump has expanded his support across groups since March. DeSantis has not.
among different demographic groups. In considering the most recent CNN numbers, though, it became apparent that there wasn’t much use. Trump has a good lead over DeSantis pretty much across the board. And since the two of them have consistently scooped up three-quarters of the available support for months, that would seem to tell us what we know.
Then I thought it might be useful to visualize the distinction. So I made radar graphs, showing the support for each candidate along an axis radiating from a central point. The result looked like this, comparing Trump, DeSantis and the aggregate of every other named candidate. The further up an axis the blob extends, the more support that candidate/group of candidates received.
What stands out, obviously, is those college-educated voters, located at around 7 o’clock on our dial. It is only this group where Trump is not in the lead; with every other demographic, Trump is a healthy swatch of red away from whoever’s in a distant second.You also can see how less hard-right Republican voters are more likely to opt for a third option. Independents and moderates still prefer Trump but the “some other person” field is beating DeSantis, at least collectively.
Back in March, DeSantis was running even with Trump among men and conservatives. He was leading among potential voters over the age of 49 and with those who have a college degree. The “other people” pool was still strong in the same places, but DeSantis was almost always outpacing them. I mean, look at the shift with independents!Trump, meanwhile, ballooned. With every group except those under 50, Trump pushed his support upward by about the same amount.
These are two snapshots of polls that have understood uncertainty in their results. Maybe these particular snapshots show a pattern that is overstated or that has already started to change.
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