An Israel-Iran war of attrition will be the new reality for a long time, scholar says

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An Israel-Iran war of attrition will be the new reality for a long time, scholar says
IsraelBloomberg TVCarmiel Arbit
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'I think the hope of the international community at this point is to avert a World War III rather than this smaller-scale war of attrition.'

As Israel weighs how to retaliate against Iran 's most recent barrage of missiles, the conflict looks like it will persist as the new normal, according to an expert on Mideast security.

But the U.S. is pushing Israel to take lesser steps, like targeting Iran's oil industry, she added. Cyber attacks could also be possible, similar to the Stuxnet virus that struck Iran's nuclear facilities two decades ago. "I think we are going to be looking at this as the new reality for a long time," Arbit predicted. "I think the question is simply going to be how often is the tit for tat going to happen, and is it just going to be tit for tat, or is this going to escalate only further. And I think the hope of the international community at this point is to avert a World War III rather than this smaller-scale war of attrition.

To be sure, the U.S. could clear in a matter of weeks any underwater mines from the strait that block oil tankers from passing through. But that wouldn't be the end of it. "If Israel really shuts down the Iranian oil economy, then Iran has no reason to tolerate the rest of the world using the Strait of Hormuz," O'Hanlon warned.

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