Politicians and commentators fret about a “baby bust”
That is only a small share of the decline in the number of births, which was over 142,000 in 2019-20 alone. But tiny social and legal constraints do make a difference. According to the Census Bureau, America’s population grew by just 0.12% in the year to July 2021, the smallest annual rise since the bureau began collecting such data in 1900. America’s white population is falling. So is the number of those under 18. .
Against that background, it makes sense to consider what the data from the ten-year census of 2020 actually say about the severity of the population downturn. A county’s population increase or decline is determined by two trends: natural increase and net migration . Both are falling. For a while, this did not matter much because of immigration. By adding around 1m people each year to America’s population in 2000-15, net migration cushioned the impact of a smaller natural increase. In 2016, however, migration fell off a cliff . In the 2010s, the foreign-born population saw its smallest increase in 40 years and net migration is now little more than 250,000 a year. Initially, the squeeze was imposed by President Donald Trump’s anti-immigration policies.
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