Afghan news reports said Taliban attacks are expected to fall by about 80%, and spare population centres, bases and highways
IN THE ORCHARDS and vineyards around Kandahar, where the Taliban first budded in the 1990s and waged nearly two decades of war against America, there is a mood of quiet anticipation. The long war that has scarred the land may be about to end. On February 21st America and the Taliban announced a week-long reduction in violence, with the promise of a formal accord at the end of it. “The agreement will happen.
Mike Pompeo, America’s secretary of state, announced that his negotiators had “come to an understanding with the Taliban on a significant and nationwide reduction in violence across Afghanistan”. If this holds, he explained, then a formal peace deal should be in sight. “We are preparing for the signing to take place on February 29.” Mr Pompeo gave no indication of when the lull would begin, but Taliban sources said it would be from the start of February 22nd.
Perhaps more worrying than the Taliban are the people who might be opposed to the deal. Suspects range from rogue Taliban commanders, to the local branch of the Islamic State group, to factions in the Afghan government profiting from the war economy. “Politically and economically, war is in their benefit, so therefore they may spoil a deal,” explained Abdul Hakim Mujahid, a former Taliban-official-turned-peace-campaigner, referring to the many potential saboteurs or provocateurs.
The outlines of the deal that is supposed to follow the lull remain as they were in September, when President Donald Trump called off talks in anger at continued Taliban attacks. America will set out a withdrawal timeline—down from about 12,000 to about 8,600, according to American sources—while the Taliban will give assurances that they will not let terrorists like al-Qaeda use Afghan soil.
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