Hong Kong is a pivotal cudgel to wield against the Chinese Communist Party.
In international politics, few things are certain during these uncertain times. But I can predict one: the relationship between America and Hong Kong is in the throes of major change.
Hong Kong has become ground zero for the ideological clash between democracy and heavy-handed Chinese communism. This tug-of-war was on global display last summer, when over two million Hong Kongers—26 percent of the entire population—peacefully took to the streets of Hong Kong, in sweltering 100-degree heat, to protest Beijing's overreach with a proposed extradition bill that would impose China's laws on Hong Kong.
At the People's Congress, the Chinese Communist Party is likely to push forward with having Hong Kong implement a full set of laws with"Chinese characteristics" that give Beijing the right to essentially do whatever it pleases. This will shatter the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984, in which China agreed to allow Hong Kong to continue to operate"autonomously" until 2047.
Unfortunately for citizens, at the same time that Hong Kong is experiencing the worst political destabilization since the Opium Wars, the special jurisdiction is already in the throes of the worst economic depression it has ever faced: GDP is down 24 percent quarter-over-quarter annualized. I have been studying the Chinese banking system and Hong Kong closely for the last decade, and I think that Hong Kong is living on borrowed time. What happens in Hong Kong will not stay in Hong Kong.
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