Canada's chief actuary challenges Alberta's claim to 53% of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) assets, suggesting a significantly lower share based on federal pension legislation.
A report from Canada's chief actuary suggests Alberta would not be entitled to more than half of the Canada Pension Plan 's assets that the province has argued it should get if it were to leave the investment fund. The chief actuary’s paper, published Friday, says the calculation that claims Alberta should get 53 per cent — or $334 billion — of the $575-billion in CPP assets “does not respect” federal pension legislation.
The $334-billion estimate comes from a report commissioned by the Alberta government in 2023 from consultants LifeWorks. Instead, the chief actuary agreed with the interpretation of University of Calgary economics professor Trevor Tombe, who had pegged Alberta’s share at between 20 and 25 per cent of total assets. “It is a complete rejection of the formula used in the LifeWorks report,' said Tombe, adding that he, like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, was disappointed the report didn't contain more detailed data. However, Tombe said Smith's frustration over not getting a dollar figure is disingenuous because the report provides a simple formula to arrive at one. 'This is not hard. We can have this assigned to some high school students to calculate, and they could do it,' he said, adding provincial officials have likely already calculated a number. Smith reiterated Thursday that her government wouldn't consider moving forward with a referendum on the issue until it had a firm number from Ottawa. 'We were under the impression that the chief actuary was hiring three different analysts to look at the legislation, to be able to get three very precise ways of looking at this issue, so that we had a precise number,' Smith said at an unrelated news conference. Applying data from the LifeWorks report to the formula provided by the chief actuary would suggest Alberta's share would be about $135 billion, Tombe said. However, he noted that CPP assets grow and shrink all the time, so any estimate could quickly become irrelevan
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