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A new CBC-commissioned poll finds 49% of Albertans are undecided on nine non-separation questions in the Oct. 19 referendum, while immigration attitudes are softening.
Nearly half of Albertans still do not know how they will vote on nine non-separation questions in the Oct. 19 referendum, while attitudes toward immigration are softening, according to a new poll commissioned by CBC News. The random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted by Trend Research between Sept. 8 and Sept. 21, and directed by Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown of Janet Brown Opinion Research.
The referendum ballot includes ten questions in total. Five deal with immigration issues, four with changes to the Constitution, and one with separation. The separation question was added to the ballot in May and has since dominated public discussion, according to the survey.
Brown said there is a stark difference in how Albertans view the separation question compared with the other nine. She noted that opinions on separation have been consistent over several months, with very few undecided voters.
For the nine non-separation questions, however, familiarity is low. The poll found that 49 per cent of respondents did not yet know how they will vote on those questions.
Immigration Attitudes Show Softening
On the immigration questions, 54 per cent of respondents agreed that Alberta should take more control over immigration to the province. That figure is down three percentage points from April.
Those who strongly agreed with the statement dropped from 40 per cent to 33 per cent, while those who somewhat agreed increased by four percentage points since the last poll.
Brown described the shift as a softening of attitudes rather than a major change. She said there is a bare consensus that Alberta should take more control over immigration, but no agreement on what that control should look like.
When asked whether the province should limit temporary residents free access to health care and education, about 45 per cent of respondents agreed. However, those who strongly disagreed increased by four percentage points compared with a similar question in April.
Public Awareness of Referendum Questions Grows
Lisa Young, a professor of political science at the University of Calgary, said Albertans are starting to engage more with the ballot questions as awareness grows.
She pointed to the visibility of signs reading no to the nine, which have prompted some residents to ask what the nine questions are. The group Alberta's Voice is behind those signs and has launched websites to explain the referendum questions.
Young said the increased discussion is a natural development as people return from summer vacation and encounter campaign materials.
The poll also asked whether, on the whole, Alberta benefits from immigration from other countries. Sixty-three per cent of respondents strongly or somewhat agreed, which Brown called a very strong number.
That figure is down 18 percentage points from September 2021, when the same question was posed in a poll for the Business Council of Alberta.
Economic Context Shapes Immigration Views
Brown said the context in which the 2021 question was asked was entirely different. At that time, the province was in the Alberta is Calling era, when concerns focused on labour shortages and attracting enough people to the province.
Key selling points to move to Alberta then included home affordability, lower taxes and higher wages, according to the government of Alberta.
Brown said that fast forward to today, with a trade war and rising housing prices, the difference of opinion is understandable. She said the current economic climate likely accounts for the change in attitudes.
The poll did not put the immigration and constitutional referendum questions directly to respondents. Instead, it addressed larger themes related to those questions.
With 49 per cent of Albertans still undecided on the nine non-separation questions, Brown said a lot remains up in the air. She noted that opinion on the separation question is far more settled, with few undecided voters.
The referendum is scheduled for Oct. 19. The questions were announced by Premier Danielle Smith in February and focus on immigration policy and constitutional changes. The separation question was added later.
Alberta Referendum Immigration Poll Janet Brown Danielle Smith Lisa Young Alberta's Voice Oct 19 Referendum
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