Report will be released ahead of October referendum, which will see Albertans vote on remaining in Canada or begin the process to have a second, binding vote on separation
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith speaks during a news conference in Calgary, Alta. , in May. The province says the report will look at estimated transition costs, economic impacts, risks and possible savings.
Alberta’s government said Friday it has picked the University of Calgary to study potential costs of the province leaving Canada. It has also formed what it calls an expert advisory panel to review the university’s report and provide a separate assessment. The panel is led by economist Jack Mintz, a go-to expert for Alberta governments who has served on several advisory groups and panels in recent decades.finance minister, and Ted Morton, an Alberta Progressive Conservative finance minister.
The United Conservative Party government said in a news release that the panel’s involvement “will allow for further and potentially differing views to be shared, ensuring Albertans are equipped with all the facts. ” In 2001, Morton was a signatory to the infamous Firewall Letter sent by Stephen Harper, before he became prime minister, to then-Alberta premier Ralph Klein. It called on Klein to take a number of steps to give Alberta more independence from Ottawa.
The province said the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy would “retain full and independent control over the final report. ” The school’s director, Martha Hall Findlay, said in the release that the school is pleased to do the analysis and she appreciates the independence.
They said Albertans deserve to be informed ahead of the province’s Oct. 19 referendum, which will see Albertans vote on remaining in Canada or begin the process to have a second, binding vote on separation. Smith has said she doesn’t think many of those in the separatist movement understand what separation would entail.
She estimated earlier this month that quitting Confederation could cost the province $400 billion – including Alberta’s share of the national debt, NATO commitments, forming armed forces and other startup costs – plus an annual price tag of up to $50 billion. Separatist leaders have pushed back on Smith’s math, claiming that forming a new country would come with no more than $5.7 billion in startup costs and an independent Alberta would post surpluses once tax revenue stops going to Ottawa.
The province said the university’s report is to look at transition costs, economic impacts, risks and possible savings.
“Alberta’s government is committed to ensuring Albertans have access to objective, evidence-based analysis so they can be confident in their decision,” it said in the release. Nixon’s press secretary, Juliana Rodriguez, said the government has budgeted up to $1.5 million for the report and the work of the panel, but didn’t provide a breakdown.
“The cost reflects the importance of this work and the potential outcomes,” Rodriguez said, adding that it also ensures the work is done “properly, independently and credibly. ”“We already know the cost of separation is enormous,” Nenshi said in a statement Friday. The government said the report and the panel’s assessment is expected to be shared by the end of summer, so Albertans have time to consider it before the referendum.
Nenshi has said Smith’s decision to put Alberta’s future in Canada to a vote at all is irresponsible, and on Friday he wrote to the director of the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service asking for public updates on potential foreign interference attempts between now and October. He also asked CSIS to assess whether the vote could take place in a safe manner, citing a massive data breach earlier this year involving a separatist group that had obtained Alberta’s official voter list containing the names and addresses of nearly three-million people.
Three separate investigations into the leak are under way, including by the RCMP and Elections Alberta. Smith’s office said Nenshi was fear-mongering and reiterated that the premier has clearance to receive briefings from CSIS on national security issues. Smith’s press secretary, Sam Blackett, said she has started receiving briefings but didn’t provide details.
Blackett also said that Public Safety Minister Mike Ellis and Technology Minister Nate Glubish have been tasked with monitoring “influence campaigns” and that they would share any concerns to authorities. Smith has said she will be voting for Alberta to remain in Canada, but has cited two competing petitions on either side of the separation debate as being the reason she’s putting the question to a vote.last month, and Elections Alberta has yet to verify the nearly 302,000 signatures that its organizers have said were obtained.
Smith’s government filed an appeal of the judge’s decision this week. The document says the province plans to argue the judge made 14 mistakes in her ruling, including her determination the province neglected its duty to consult First Nations. The cost of the fall referendum, which also involves nine other government-sponsored questions around immigration and constitutional reform, has not been calculated.
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