Despite instability, budget includes tax cut costing $1.2-billion in revenue
Alberta is bracing for a trade war with the United States that, when coupled with sagging energy prices, will usher in years of deficits and has left the government without a plan to balance its budget.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has emphasized diplomacy when it comes to fighting tariffs, making repeated trips to the U.S. to lobby American policy-makers against the levies. In Canada, she is urging her counterparts across the country to respond to Mr. Trump’s demands that it beef up border security and stem the flow of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl, into the United States.
The budget depends on the benchmark price of oil trading at an average of $68 per barrel in the next fiscal year. It anticipates that the differential between U.S. and Canadian oil prices will widen to approximately $17.10 per barrel in 2025-26, then slowly decrease to $15.60 by 2027-28 as the impact of tariffs recedes.
The province calculated that revenue from fossil fuels will total $17.1-billion in the coming fiscal year, down $4.4-billion from its 2024-25 forecast. Money from non-renewable resources makes up 23 per cent of Alberta’s total revenue. The province predicts its GDP growth will slow to 1.8 per cent in 2025, and then further to 1.7 per cent in 2026 when it feels the full effects of the tariffs.
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