Better-than-expected social distancing practices have led an influential research model to lower its projected U.S. coronavirus death toll by 12%, while predicting some states may be able to safely begin easing restrictions as early as May 4.
FILE PHOTO: People line up at a safe social distance outside the grocery store amid the coronavirus disease outbreak in Medford, Massachusetts, U.S., April 4, 2020. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
Strict adherence to stay-at-home orders and business closures imposed by governors in 42 of the 50 U.S. states over the past four weeks to curb the spread of the virus was cited as a key factor in the improved outlook. The institute said states with low death rates, including Vermont, West Virginia, Montana and Hawaii, could safely relax some restrictions on May 4, so long as they continued to limit social gatherings. States moving to ease stay-at-home measures also are urged to institute widespread testing for infections and to isolate anyone testing positive, while tracing their close contacts and quarantining them.
The model’s latest forecast for the first time incorporated cell phone data that suggested people began having less contact with one another earlier than was previously assumed, especially in the South, as a growing number of states imposed social distancing and stay-home orders.
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