Abacus Data: Alberta Politics Deep Dive: Notley’s NDP leads Smith and the UCP by 8 but a core group of “reluctant” UCP voters will likely decide the election
Alberta Politics Deep Dive: Notley’s NDP leads Smith and the UCP by 8 but a core group of “reluctant” UCP voters will likely decide the electionEarlier this week I was in Calgary speaking to a business group about the political environments in Canada and Alberta. I shared some data from a new survey Abacus Data completed last week exploring the public mood as well as political opinions and perceptions.
There’s a wide gap on other issues as well. NDP supporters are more likely to rate climate change, income inequality, and improving the education system as top issues while UCP voters are more likely to rate gun rights and mask or vaccine mandates as primary issues of concern. However, it’s worth focusing most on the top 3 issues of the cost of living, healthcare, and managing the economy. Neither party has an advantage on the cost of living . The UCP has a 6-point advantage on the economy while the NDP has a larger 13-point advantage on improving the healthcare system .
The survey also asked Albertans to rate the two leaders on several attributes. Overall, Rachel Notley’s image is more favourable than Danielle Smith. When asked whether the attribute describe each leader very well, pretty well, not that well, or not at all, among those with an opinion of both leaders Notley has a clear advantage on all except for standing up for what’s best for Alberta. There’s only a 2-point difference on that.
82% of those who like Danielle Smith say they will vote UCP. That drops to 40% among those with a neutral opinion and to 2% among those who dislike Smith. Of note, 26% of those with a neutral view of Smith and 24% of those with a negative view of her say they are undecided about how they’d vote if an election was today.
This evaluation could change as Smith continues to implement her agenda, but the early reaction is quite mixed.To understand the general orientation of Albertans, we asked people which of two statements they feel Alberta most needs now: Among current NDP supporters, 94% want a government to focus on the basics. Among undecided voters it’s 71%. But among current UCP supporters, views are split. 53% want a government that focuses on the basics while 47% wants a government that shakes things up and pushes back on people like Justin Trudeau. This divide within the UCP voter universe underscores the challenges facing Premier Smith.
Among past UCP voters, only 60% say they would vote UCP again with 15% defecting to the NDP and 2% to other parties. Almost 1 in 4 past UCP voters say they are undecided. Danielle Smith starts her mandate as Premier with a mixed-opinion environment. The UCP has an equal-sized voter pool as the NDP but the Premier’s image is more negative than Rachel Notley’s, a significant portion of 2019 UCP voters believe she will be worse as premier than Jason Kenney, and she trails Notley on some key issues.
• Smaller party voters are those who voted for the Alberta Party, Liberal Party or another one of the smaller parties in the last election. But among the reluctant UCP group, Smith has a pretty negative net favourable rating while Notley has a net positive .One challenge for Danielle Smith among the reluctant UCP group is that 2 in 3 think she will be a worse premier than Jason Kenney and only 7% think she will be better. This group’s perception is almost an exact replica of the loyal NDP group and a mirror opposite of the loyal UCP group.
And issue salience and ownership becomes important, depending on how the election is framed. For example, among reluctant UCP voters, the UCP has a 5-point advantage on who they would trust most to manage the economy. But they trail the NDP by almost 30 points on healthcare and 7 points on the cost of living. On the two most important issues for these voters today, the NDP has a clear advantage.
But among the loyal UCP, views are more split. Almost equal numbers are divided between the two options. But views are quite different among the reluctant UCP group. They really dislike Trump, are less angry with Trudeau and like Jason Kenney far more than they like Daniel Smith. In fact, Smith’s average rating is only slightly higher than that of Justin Trudeau in this group.
This group is leaning NDP right now because they don’t think Danielle Smith and her government are offering that.
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