The attack on Abqaiq was the biggest disruption to the world's energy supply in decades
The attack appears to be the most dangerous escalation yet by the Islamic republic in its simmering conflict with America and its allies. After months of sabre-rattling and increasingly brazen acts of aggression—from mine attacks on ships to the seizure of a British-flagged oil tanker—Iran has moved on to strike directly at the jugular vein of the world’s economy.
This pressure has prompted Iran to hit back. It first sabotaged oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Then it stepped up a notch to seizing them, most recently grabbing a vessel on September 16th that it said was smuggling fuel to the United Arab Emirates . Iran has also begun to flout some aspects of the nuclear deal itself, by enriching uranium to proscribed quantities and levels of purity.
Much is still unknown about the latest attack. But it is reasonable to conclude, as Saudi Arabia soon did, that Iran had a hand in it. The Islamic republic denies involvement, but circumstantial evidence links it to the weapons used. The first claim of responsibility came from the Houthis, who control northern parts of Yemen and its capital, Sana’a.
Yet its ground forces have been humbled by four years of fighting rebels waging guerrilla warfare in Yemen. And its air defences seem to be just as inept at fending off conventional threats. To be fair, drones and cruise missiles are especially hard to stop, particularly if they overwhelm defences by arriving in large numbers. They are small and they fly low, hiding from radar behind the curvature of the earth. And they are manoeuvrable, so they can skirt known missile-defence sites.
An aide to the vice-president, Mike Pence, said that “locked and loaded” was in fact a reference to American energy independence, a prize bit of spin even for Mr Trump’s White House. The erratic swerves then continued with Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, calling the attack an “act of war” in a visit to the kingdom.
Times have changed. The crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, has ploughed ahead with a ruinous war in Yemen despite deep misgivings in Washington and other Western capitals. He has also worked to cultivate a new Saudi identity, one rooted in muscular nationalism instead of Islam. Officials in the Gulf have warned for months that the kingdom would eventually have to retaliate against Iran for the seemingly endless string of drone and missile attacks on its facilities.
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