The way the economic stars are aligning, that scenario is well within the realms of possibility
. Recession forecasts are being pushed back or cut, and Powell and Janet Yellen - his predecessor and current Treasury Secretary - both think there will be no recession at all.
It would also represent quite a turnaround in personal fortunes for the now 70-year old Republican first nominated by former President Donald Trump in 2017. Yet Powell may soon be vying for a crown most orthodox economists say belonged to Paul Volcker or Alan Greenspan. Greenspan, dubbed ‘the Maestro’ by his admirers, was Fed chief from 1987 to 2006. Under his guidance in the mid-1990s the Fed raised rates to cool an overheating economy without triggering recession for the only time in its history - what his Vice Chair Alan Blinder called the “perfect soft landing.”
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius on Monday cut his 12-month recession probability to 20% from 25%, the lowest in a year. “The recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession.”
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