The Fed creates problems for the world’s monetary policymakers. But at least it is not trying to
AS THE ANNUAL meeting of central bankers and economists at Jackson Hole, a mountain resort in Wyoming, began on August 23, two participants made a bet. Would President Donald Trump tweet about the opening remarks of Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, within 45 minutes of their publication? In the event, it took the president 57 minutes. That night the victor enjoyed his winnings—a glass of whiskey—in the bar.
The president’s twitter tirade could lead to greater policy convergence, too. Though Mr Powell kept mum about the future path of American interest rates, he said that the Fed’s doveish shift had helped secure a positive outlook for inflation and employment. As recently as December it was raising rates away from those set by other central banks; now it is moving downwards with them.
As the academic presentations started, a second uniting factor became apparent. Mr Trump is a powerful force outside the Fed’s control—one it cannot fully offset. In claiming to put America first, he complicates the country’s monetary policymaker’s task of keeping the domestic economy on an even keel. That difficulty is paralleled by how the Fed, in turn, complicates monetary policy in the rest of the world.
Fed policy can thus have far-reaching effects. Participants in Jackson Hole mentioned the work of Gita Gopinath of the IMF, which showed that the dollar’s dominance in trade invoicing may mean economies cannot adjust to external shocks by as much as traditional models suggest.
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