On today's episode of Wealth!, Host Brad Smith breaks down key personal finance stories, from anticipated interest rate cuts to a lookahead to the holiday...
Traders have been pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its September meeting next week. Crescent Grove Advisors co-chief investment officer Andrew Krei notes thatsince July's jobs report saw the unemployment rate hit 4.3%, sparking fears of a recession. However, he believes that the labor market data shows the economy"softening off of an ultra-hot level" rather than indicating the beginnings of a recession.
We've got Andrew Cry who is the uh co co chief Investment Officer over at Crescent Grove Advisors here.
And so all of these things considered, where are the strongest sectors that people should be positioned for or positioned in when the rate cutting cycle does begin.So we think we would kind of frame it in terms of tech versus everything else in this environment, right? So I think you point to that and you say, ok, you know, some of the exuberance and enthusiasm if people are rotating out of those tech names, take some chips off the table.We also just got an ECB rate cut for the second time here uh in just about three months essentially.
So if you start to look at some of those early indications of, if the trade cycle is gonna inflect higher, it's starting to look reasonably positive. And that say that cyclical picture is playing out and you've got much less demanding valuations are gonna come back to this theme because you've got these mega cap tech names which trade at uh you know, pretty rich valuations in this environment.
But ideally, you want to hit that annual number every year because don't forget you don't pay tax on it until you retire.Well, ask anyone applying for jobs right now and they will all tell you the same thing you spend time crafting your resume and the perfect cover letter only to have an A I tool disregard potentially your application and the hiring manager never even sees that you applied.
So very simple things like taking the job description, throwing it in a chat GP T to pull out the relevant keywords to ask it to highlight what are the top 3 to 4 skills that I should really be emphasizing in my resume right. How can people start to make sure that their network is set up for their pivot that they wanna make or just for that next gig that they're looking to do?And, and the funny thing too is we talk about A I and we can use it, you know, until the cows come home.So when we think about really developing that network, uh number one, think about the low hanging fruit, right?It's about facilitating and developing a new new network.
And if you are pivoting, you have to be able to really brand and market yourself for that and be able to highlight, highlight those transferable skills.
That's good news for consumers and then consumers hope or expect that translation to seeing food prices coming down. But in terms of inflation, we're seeing a lot of relief uh with uh fruits and vegetables and with a lot of uh central aisle foods, a lot of bakery goods, uh breads and cereals.Uh But that said some of the biggest challenges uh which are, which are prominent in the minds of many consumers.
So we've seen crude oil for a number of reasons behave in a way that's far more erratic since around that time. And that ease can also mean some impacts or at least trade downs uh to some of the store brands or retail brands as well. And it's not exactly I think what you asked, but I do want to point out that the availability and demand for those foods.
Those are the shortcut buttons and I, I had trouble, uh, pushing there are different types of cruise control, regular cruise control, smart contr, cruise control.If you own this car, you're gonna figure it out and you're gonna sort of get the settings customized to your liking.And we actually liked it, I think top three for me, obviously, good design, good interior space, but it drove well smoothly.I think it's a winning package, good execution.
How does this also kind of mirror up against what we've been tracking, which is AAA really battle tested consumer as prices have certainly come into play on both staples and some of the discretionary items.I, I think you summarized it pretty well that it does line up against some of the battle tested consumer.
And, and on the other end considering that this is the biggest slowing that we may have seen since what 20 18, what does that kind of hold for some of the categories that may underperform and, and how much there's gonna be needing to uh be a sense of promotions or, or discounting that some of the retailers are gonna need to put forward to move through that inventory.
So what could we essentially see this get to after the holiday season if people are saying, you know what I'll, I'll still spend, but I'm just gonna put it on credit instead and figure out how to pay it down later. Take advantage of all the investments that have been made in both the omni channel, the online and the physical retail uh loyalty.So take advantage of those and then you're seeing the continued advent of free shipping and, and really meeting consumers where they are.
Brad Smith Personal Finance Federal Reserve Unemployment Rate Food Prices Retirement Holiday Retail
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