Philippe J. Fournier: A majority is within reach for the Liberals, but the NDP's current level of support could yet throw a wrench into their plans
on Saturday, O’Toole ranked third behind Trudeau and Singh on preferred prime minister. To the question: “Which federal leader would make the best PM?”, Trudeau was the choice of 25 per cent of respondents and Singh, 18 per cent. Only 15 per cent picked O’Toole even though 30 per cent of decided voters in that poll still intend to vote for the CPC. See Léger’s reportIn its latest survey, the Angus Reid Institute asked its panel which issue facing Canada they cared most about.
As mentioned above, the NDP current level of support could potentially throw a wrench into the Liberals’ plans . However, polls also show the NDP’s main core of support lies with younger voters, a demographic tranche that historically votes in fewer numbers. This will be the main challenge for the NDP: translating support into actual votes in ballot boxes. In 2019, the NDP underperformed its polls by an average of 2 points nationally, which arguably cost Singh somewhere between five to 10 seats.
In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois has been polling in the high 20s and low 30s in the province for the better part of this 43rd Parliament, enough for a close second place behind the Liberals on average. However, yesterday’s Léger poll showed the Liberals ahead in Quebec by a 12-point margin over the BQ, so Yves-François Blanchet may have to play a little bit of defense in ridings he won by modest margins two years ago.
Later this week, we will dive into more detailed analyses about what regions and what type of voters will each party target to maximize their chances to win. For the length of this 36-day campaign, you can look forward this column several times a week. We will update all the numbers as they become available. Buckle up, dear readers.
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